Global Fund Update – February 2026
Global equity indices see-sawed in January but finished modestly higher in local currencies. Absolute returns for the Goshawk Global Fund were impacted by the weakness of the US Dollar, which declined around 1.6% against Sterling in January and represents around 50% of fund assets. In January, the Goshawk Global Fund rose 1.3%.
After a period of considerable speculation, Kevin Warsh was finally named as the new Chair of the Federal Reserve, replacing Jerome Powell. Questions over the ongoing independence of the Fed and the possible impact of White House influence on policy have contributed to increased volatility in a number of markets in recent months. The weakness of the US Dollar has been countered by considerable strength in precious metals like gold and silver in recent months, which has driven the price of mining stocks materially higher.
Stocks & Portfolio Moves
Our exposure to the mining industry is through uranium company Cameco, which has also seen exceptional share price performance. We modestly de-risked our position in January, taking considerable profits, while still maintaining a position of around 2.5%. Shares in Cameco rose 34.9% in January.
In Japan, recently appointed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a snap election for 8th February. The Prime Minister has taken advantage of her initial popularity and the perceived weakness of opposition parties to gain a mandate for her fiscal reform package to try to improve growth. Japanese bond yields have moved considerably higher, narrowing the gap to other markets, but the Yen has remained weak. Our Japanese portfolio remains a core part of our strategy, and so far, in the current reporting season we have seen satisfactory results from Keyence, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial and Yaskawa. Physical AI and the specific increase in importance of the industrial use of robotics is also a key theme in our portfolios and both Keyence and Yaskawa are stocks that play a central role in this industry. We believe these companies are in the early innings of a period of secular growth for the factory automation industry, which has struggled through a prolonged downturn that stretches back as far as the outbreak of the pandemic.
There has been a mixed response to the results of companies reporting in the early part of the earnings season. It would appear that companies issuing results off the back of strong share price performance, and therefore elevated expectations, have tended to struggle, even if they have delivered satisfactory figures.
Intel shares have had a tremendous run from the low point of last year. New management has been able to re-invigorate investor confidence in a turnaround of the company’s fortunes, helped by investments from both Nvidia and the US government. While this quarter’s results exceeded market expectations and confirmed that the business is on the right track for recovery, CEO Lip-Bu Tan sought to rein in analyst estimates that anticipated the company’s recovery occurring at a potentially faster pace than is realistic, leading to the shares re-tracing more than 20% of recent gains. Intel shares ended January 25.9% higher.
Trane Technologies is one of the world’s leading heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) companies and has experienced a period of share price weakness in the last six months, so expectations into earnings were lower than many other portfolio companies. While results met modest expectations, comments around current trading and considerable strength in their industrial HVAC order book led to a strong share price reaction. Performance was also helped by management comments that the residential HVAC division was coming to the end of a long period of inventory drawdown by customers that had been holding back performance. Trane is a superbly managed business and its products play a key role in managing the climate of offices, factories and data centres, which is a key driver of future growth. Trane shares rose 8% in January.
Shares in SAP were a material casualty of January’s reporting season, falling by 16% on the day of its results and 18% for the month, after producing a mixed earnings report that was by no means disastrous. We introduced SAP to our portfolio last year after what was already a considerable period of share price weakness but, as for many other software companies such as Salesforce, we have been too early in investing in what we see as attractive valuations. In our view, SAP will continue to be a winner despite the threats of AI-related disintermediation, as it should continue to be embedded in the day-to-day management of enterprise supply chains and middle office functions, along with growth from the shift of databases from on-premise to the cloud. SAP grew its cloud backlog by around 25% in its most recent quarter and we expect the company to deliver double-digit revenue growth in 2026 and beyond to more than justify its current valuation.
We added a new holding in Singapore Technologies Engineering in January, increasing our weighting in the defence sector, which was a major theme through 2025, and complementing our existing holdings in Leonardo and QinetiQ. We have also maintained our significant position in Rolls-Royce and our holding in Mitsubishi Electric, which has a fast-growing defence business with expertise in crucial radar technology. Despite ongoing peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, we believe that a continued recovery in defence spending by European and Asian countries is still in its infancy and expect ongoing geopolitical uncertainty to be a secular driver for these companies for the foreseeable future. ST Engineering is a well-managed company, with around 45% of revenues related to the supply of defence equipment to customers all around the world, and is attractively valued relative to our expectations of its future growth.
Outlook
The last three months have seen a broad range of stocks performing well, a marked contrast to the earlier period dominated by US technology shares. Our Japanese and Chinese holdings have started to contribute, as have (in our definition) “value” stocks elsewhere such as Schlumberger in oil services and Johnson & Johnson in healthcare. This more balanced equity market suits our approach, namely selecting stocks based on value for money, without the constraints of an index which seems over-concentrated. We look forward to these trends continuing through the rest of 2026 and beyond.
Goshawk Asset Management
Data source: Goshawk Asset Management, Bloomberg
Disclaimer: This is a marketing document. Further information about Vermeer UCITS ICAV, including the current Prospectus and Key Investment Information Documents (“KIIDs”), are available in English and can be found at https://www.goshawkam.co.uk. Past performance may not be a reliable guide to future performance. Investments can go down as well as up and therefore the return on investment will necessarily be variable. Income may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation arrangements. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price, or income of the product. Goshawk Asset Management is a trading name of North Atlantic Investment Services Limited (FCA no. 969870) with company no. 13800256. North Atlantic Investment Services Limited is authorised and regulated by the FCA (FRN 969870) and is incorporated in the United Kingdom (Company no. 13800256). Registered Office Address: 6 Stratton Street, Mayfair, London, W1J 8LD. Vermeer UCITS ICAV (“the Fund”) is registered with the Central Bank of Ireland as an open-ended umbrella-type Irish collective asset management vehicle with variable capital (Register Number C154687). Opinions expressed, whether specifically or in general or both, on the performance of individual securities and in a wider economic context represent our view at the time of preparation. They are subject to change and should not be interpreted as investment advice. This document is intended for use by shareholders of the Fund, persons who are authorised to carry out investment business, professional investors, and those who are permitted to receive such information. Nothing in this document should be construed as giving investment advice or any offer, invitation, or recommendation to subscribe to the Fund. Any decision to subscribe should be based on the Fund’s current Prospectus and KIIDs. Waystone Management Company (IE) Limited, as UCITS Man Co, has the right to terminate the arrangements made for the marketing of funds in accordance with the UCITS Directive. A summary of investor rights policies can be found at https://www.waystone.com/waystone/policies.