Global Fund Update – November 2025
October was another solid month for global equities, taking overall market gains for the year to 14.2% in Sterling. The Goshawk Global Fund gained 4% in October and is up 7.4% year-to-date. Given we are valuation sensitive and mindful of correlation we would not have expected to keep up with this very narrow market for most of this year. We have actually been encouraged by the performance in recent months, even more so given it has come from a wide variety of different areas.
Stocks & Portfolio Moves
The US results season is in full swing and so far has been positive, with most companies reporting both revenue and earnings ahead of expectations. Amazon shares have not performed well this year, but enjoyed a rally of over 9% on the last day of the month. This move followed a reacceleration of its AWS cloud revenue growth and a continued strong performance from its online retail business, both in the US, where the company now generates c.7% operating margins, and in the international market, where over $40billion of revenue is only generating just over $1billion of operating income as a number of markets have not yet reached profitability. Perhaps the jewel in Amazon’s business is the little-discussed advertising division, which now delivers over $20billion in quarterly revenue at an extremely high margin.
Amazon is now over 3% of the Global Fund portfolio, and we remain comfortable with its current prospects for growth and a higher level of overall margins. Like so many of the so-called hyperscalers, it is investing very aggressively in data centre capex, but it can afford this as it is still generating over $10billion of free cash flow in the quarter, despite increasing its annualised levels of spending to $125billion.
One of the fund’s longest-held positions is Cameco in the nuclear industry. Even before the boom in spending in AI-related data centres, we had an optimistic view that nuclear power would play a significant role in the energy transition to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. In 2023, Cameco joined forces with Brookfield to acquire Westinghouse at a time when demand for new and existing nuclear plants was still at a low point. In October, the US government announced that Westinghouse had been selected as a key partner to build new capacity worth at least $80billion over the next decade. This highlights the renaissance of nuclear as a key industry to satisfy growing demand and Cameco is right at the centre of this via its stake in Westinghouse and its uranium mining assets that are largely in Canada. These mines were mothballed for many years due to the low uranium price following the Fukushima disaster in Japan that set the industry back for over a decade. Cameco’s shares rose over 20% in October, taking the position size in the Global Fund to around 3%. Despite acknowledging an elevated level of volatility, we are comfortable with this position size as it is so early in the renaissance of the nuclear industry.
Japanese equities enjoyed a strong month in October as the Nikkei 225 gained around 17% in local currency to a new all-time high. On 21st October, the country appointed a new Prime Minister with Sanae Takaichi becoming Japan’s first ever female leader of the LDP. Takaichi is seen as a pro-growth leader and disciple of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and she wants to see a fiscal expansion to help drive faster growth at the same time as leaving the Bank of Japan to steer monetary policy independently. Japanese inflation has been well ahead of the target rate of 2%, but the BoJ has shown a reluctance to continue with its policy of normalising rates, citing tariff uncertainty as the key reason to leave rates unchanged. Relations between Takaichi and President Trump appear to be off to a strong start, which will hopefully give the central bank confidence to continue to increase rates gently and stabilise the yen, which has been very weak since the LDP leadership election.
At the start of the month, Yaskawa Electric’s results and guidance were much stronger than expected, highlighting the re-emergence of robotics as a growth industry after a lengthy period of being negatively impacted by weak industrial activity. This is being aided by a breakthrough in technology, artificial intelligence, and a significant skill shortage in certain labour markets, such as welding, where increasing robotic capabilities is driving a new wave of demand for factory automation. Like so many factory automation stocks, Yaskawa had underperformed for several years before we entered into the position earlier this year. Shares gained over 34% in October and we believe that this is just the start of a new wave of “physical AI” led demand, and we added to our position taking it to just under 2% at month-end.
In Europe, the economy continues to grow at a moderate pace, and countries like France continue to incur a high degree of political uncertainty and an unwillingness to address tough economic challenges. While we continue to hold around 23% of our portfolio in European equities, this does not reflect an optimistic view of the European trading bloc, although we remain hopeful that German reforms will see a substantial increase in defence and infrastructure spending in the coming years. The positions we hold in Europe are a function of what we regard as high-quality global companies that happen to be domiciled in Europe and offer better value for money than many of their more expensive US comparatives.
Ferrari shares had a tough month, falling around 17% after hosting a much anticipated investor day and issuing disappointing guidance. Management guided towards annual revenue growth of 5% through to 2030 and issued an earnings forecast that was well below consensus. We see this guidance as conservative and remain confident that the company will be able to continue to deliver consistent performance ahead of expectations. Indeed, the quarterly results issued at the time of the investor day highlighted full year numbers that exceeded forecasts and effectively meant that Ferrari had achieved its last set of financial targets a year ahead of schedule. We acknowledge that Ferrari is an expensively-valued share, but we believe that this is justified by the highly predictable nature of its revenue growth and the strong pricing power it continues to enjoy as it limits the supply of new vehicles into the marketplace.
In China, while our positions in Alibaba and Baidu ran into some profit-taking, the results of other holdings in our “Chinese portfolio” were very encouraging. China Life posted robust growth, well ahead of market expectations, enabling the company’s shares to post a gain of over 12% for the month. The results highlighted unambiguous evidence that the government is encouraging the Chinese population to increase its exposure to savings-related products. ICBC also posted a solid set of results and noted a stabilising property market and increasing loan growth. We see these stocks as still attractively valued and provide a good balance in our portfolio that is complementary to the technology-related growth names we own in this region.
Outlook
Although the shares of some high profile companies are at highly-elevated valuations, we remain of the view that there are many areas of the market that offer particularly good growth and value. Over the last six months the portfolio has benefitted from a wide range of investments: from emerging AI applications to power solutions for data centres, US support for Intel, Japanese robot makers to European luxury goods companies. We feel more comfortable when our portfolio returns come from a range of different themes, rather than large holdings in a few well-known companies.
Goshawk Asset Management
Data source: Goshawk Asset Management, Bloomberg
Disclaimer: This is a marketing document. Further information about Vermeer UCITS ICAV, including the current Prospectus and Key Investment Information Documents (“KIIDs”), are available in English and can be found at https://www.goshawkam.co.uk. Past performance may not be a reliable guide to future performance. Investments can go down as well as up and therefore the return on investment will necessarily be variable. Income may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation arrangements. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price, or income of the product. Goshawk Asset Management is a trading name of North Atlantic Investment Services Limited (FCA no. 969870) with company no. 13800256. North Atlantic Investment Services Limited is authorised and regulated by the FCA (FRN 969870) and is incorporated in the United Kingdom (Company no. 13800256). Registered Office Address: 6 Stratton Street, Mayfair, London, W1J 8LD. Vermeer UCITS ICAV (“the Fund”) is registered with the Central Bank of Ireland as an open-ended umbrella-type Irish collective asset management vehicle with variable capital (Register Number C154687). Opinions expressed, whether specifically or in general or both, on the performance of individual securities and in a wider economic context represent our view at the time of preparation. They are subject to change and should not be interpreted as investment advice. This document is intended for use by shareholders of the Fund, persons who are authorised to carry out investment business, professional investors, and those who are permitted to receive such information. Nothing in this document should be construed as giving investment advice or any offer, invitation, or recommendation to subscribe to the Fund. Any decision to subscribe should be based on the Fund’s current Prospectus and KIIDs. Waystone Management Company (IE) Limited, as UCITS Man Co, has the right to terminate the arrangements made for the marketing of funds in accordance with the UCITS Directive. A summary of investor rights policies can be found at https://www.waystone.com/waystone/policies.